The Japanese cabinet approved a new basic disaster-prevention plan on June 12, 2026, adding home evacuation as a recommended option for capital-area earthquakes [1, 2].

This shift in strategy aims to reduce the immense pressure on public shelters during a catastrophe. By allowing residents to remain in buildings that are relatively intact and have functioning utilities, the government seeks to avoid the logistical collapse of evacuation centers [2, 3].

Under the worst-case scenario for a capital-area earthquake, officials estimate a death toll of 18,000 people [1]. The scale of the potential crisis is further highlighted by projections that up to 4.8 million people could be forced to evacuate [2].

To implement these guidelines, local communities are beginning practical training. In Edogawa-ku, Tokyo, residents of the Nagisa New Town condominium complex held a night-time evacuation drill on June 12 [1]. The exercise focused on the immediate establishment of a disaster response headquarters during the hours of darkness.

"Today is a night-time training session, and we have gathered to establish a disaster counter-measures headquarters in the event that an earthquake occurs at night," the chair of the disaster-prevention association said [1].

While the government's new basic plan incorporates home evacuation as a concrete goal [1], some reports indicate that officials are still in the process of drafting specific guidelines to support this transition [2]. The focus remains on ensuring that those who stay home have the necessary resources to survive without immediate government intervention.

“The Japanese government now recommends staying home during earthquakes if buildings are intact.”

This policy shift acknowledges the physical impossibility of housing millions of displaced citizens in traditional shelters during a major Tokyo quake. By formalizing 'home evacuation,' Japan is moving toward a decentralized resilience model that places more responsibility on individual building safety and personal preparedness, reducing the burden on state-managed infrastructure.