Vali Nasr, a former adviser to the U.S. State Department, said the Iran-U.S. deal is a major setback for the United States [1].
The assessment suggests that the agreement may shift the balance of power in the Middle East by rewarding Iranian strategic patience and strengthening its regional posture.
Nasr, who is also a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, spoke in an interview with France 24 [1]. He said that the current trajectory of the conflict favors Tehran, noting that the war is ending in Iran's favor and the outcome is definitely not favorable to Israel [1].
According to Nasr, the deal serves as a gain for the Iranian government. He said it is very difficult not to see this as a major setback for the United States and a major gain for Iran [1].
Beyond the immediate diplomatic terms, Nasr highlighted the psychological and political impact on the Iranian leadership. He said the Islamic Republic, domestically and regionally, is coming out of this war more confident and more self-assured [1].
While some reports indicate that the memorandum of understanding is viewed by U.S. and Iranian officials as a positive step toward ending the conflict [2], Nasr said the long-term effects diminish U.S. influence. This perspective contrasts with market reactions, where some traders viewed the deal as a hopeful development for the stability of the Strait of Hormuz [3].
“"It's very difficult not to see this as a major setback for the United States and a major gain for Iran."”
The disagreement between official government narratives and academic analysis highlights a tension between short-term conflict resolution and long-term strategic influence. While a deal may lower immediate tensions and stabilize global energy markets, critics like Nasr argue that the perceived 'victory' for Iran could embolden the regime and weaken the U.S. position as a primary security guarantor in the region.
